{
  "_about": "Every derived number in The Tax Month, October 2026 is reproducible from here: which source figures went in, what formula was applied, and what came out -- including where our arithmetic on MoFPED's own rounded table figures differs from MoFPED's own stated total by a rounding cent.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "calculation_id": "CALC-001",
      "metric": "Tax collections shortfall (August 2026)",
      "input_source": "MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5",
      "input_variables": { "tax_programme_ugx_bn": 2975.86, "tax_outturn_ugx_bn": 2663.21 },
      "formula": "tax_programme_ugx_bn - tax_outturn_ugx_bn",
      "result": 312.65,
      "rounding": "2 decimal places, matching the source table",
      "date_calculated": "2026-09-29",
      "analyst": "TaxIntellilytics Stories",
      "notes": "MoFPED's own body text states the shortfall as UGX 312.64bn -- a UGX 0.01bn difference from arithmetic on the table's own rounded figures, most likely because the underlying unrounded figures differ slightly from their 2-decimal display. This issue uses MoFPED's stated 312.64bn in prose and shows 312.65bn only where it is the direct arithmetic result of the displayed target/outturn."
    },
    {
      "calculation_id": "CALC-002",
      "metric": "Tax programme performance (%)",
      "input_source": "MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5",
      "input_variables": { "tax_outturn_ugx_bn": 2663.21, "tax_programme_ugx_bn": 2975.86 },
      "formula": "(tax_outturn_ugx_bn / tax_programme_ugx_bn) * 100",
      "result": 89.5,
      "rounding": "1 decimal place",
      "date_calculated": "2026-09-29",
      "analyst": "TaxIntellilytics Stories",
      "notes": "Matches MoFPED's own stated 89.5%."
    },
    {
      "calculation_id": "CALC-003",
      "metric": "Domestic revenue performance (%)",
      "input_source": "MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5",
      "input_variables": { "domestic_revenue_outturn_ugx_bn": 2872.47, "domestic_revenue_programme_ugx_bn": 3238.15 },
      "formula": "(domestic_revenue_outturn_ugx_bn / domestic_revenue_programme_ugx_bn) * 100",
      "result": 88.71,
      "rounding": "1 decimal place -> 88.7%",
      "date_calculated": "2026-09-29",
      "analyst": "TaxIntellilytics Stories",
      "notes": "Matches MoFPED's own stated 88.7%. Shortfall (3238.15 - 2872.47 = 365.68) also matches the source exactly."
    },
    {
      "calculation_id": "CALC-004",
      "metric": "Total government revenue incl. grants, performance (%)",
      "input_source": "MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5",
      "input_variables": { "total_revenue_outturn_ugx_bn": 2895.82, "total_revenue_programme_ugx_bn": 3299.10 },
      "formula": "(total_revenue_outturn_ugx_bn / total_revenue_programme_ugx_bn) * 100",
      "result": 87.78,
      "rounding": "1 decimal place -> 87.8%",
      "date_calculated": "2026-09-29",
      "analyst": "TaxIntellilytics Stories",
      "notes": "Matches MoFPED's own stated 87.8%. Arithmetic deviation (3299.10 - 2895.82 = 403.28) differs from MoFPED's own stated -403.29 by UGX 0.01bn -- the same rounding pattern as CALC-001."
    },
    {
      "calculation_id": "CALC-005",
      "metric": "Fiscal deficit, variance from plan",
      "input_source": "MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5",
      "input_variables": { "net_borrowing_outturn_ugx_bn": -708.85, "net_borrowing_programme_ugx_bn": -257.62 },
      "formula": "net_borrowing_outturn_ugx_bn - net_borrowing_programme_ugx_bn",
      "result": -451.23,
      "rounding": "2 decimal places",
      "date_calculated": "2026-09-29",
      "analyst": "TaxIntellilytics Stories",
      "notes": "The actual deficit ran UGX 451.23bn larger than planned."
    },
    {
      "calculation_id": "CALC-006",
      "metric": "Residual between the three named tax-handle shortfalls and the total tax shortfall",
      "input_source": "MOFPED-POE-2026-08, body text and Table 5",
      "input_variables": {
        "indirect_shortfall_ugx_bn": -170.39,
        "direct_shortfall_ugx_bn": -108.43,
        "trade_shortfall_ugx_bn": -49.36,
        "total_tax_shortfall_ugx_bn": -312.64
      },
      "formula": "total_tax_shortfall_ugx_bn - (indirect_shortfall_ugx_bn + direct_shortfall_ugx_bn + trade_shortfall_ugx_bn)",
      "result": 15.54,
      "rounding": "2 decimal places",
      "date_calculated": "2026-09-30",
      "analyst": "TaxIntellilytics Stories",
      "notes": "MoFPED's own body text presents these three figures as the shortfall 'reflected across all major tax handles', but they sum to UGX 328.18bn -- UGX 15.54bn more than the UGX 312.64bn total tax shortfall the same report states. Table 5 has no category-level breakdown row for Indirect/Direct/International Trade taxes to check this against. Not established from public evidence whether this is a rounding effect across multiple report tiers, an incomplete category list, or something else -- reported as an open discrepancy, not resolved here."
    }
  ]
}