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Sheet · The notebook← TaxIntellilytics
African Tax Observatory

An atlas of tax for forty-four administrations, 2010 to 2025

The notebook

Five ideas, worked through on real numbers

Each note plays out one idea this atlas relies on, step by step, on ATAF's own figures. Pause it, scrub it, jump to a step, and in four of them choose the country or the year to test the idea on a case you care about.
How these notes are designed, and why
  • One change at a time. Each step moves one thing, and every in-between frame is still a correct chart: the staged-transition rule from Heer and Robertson's experiments on animated statistical graphics (Animated Transitions in Statistical Data Graphics, 2007).
  • You set the pace. Pause, scrub, or jump to any step: animations that run too fast or carry too much at once are a known failure (Tversky, Morrison and Betrancourt, Animation: can it facilitate?, 2002), and learner-paced segments are one of Mayer's multimedia-learning principles.
  • Signals, not decoration. The highlighted country, the dashed median and the caption under each step point at the one thing that step is about; nothing moves just to move.
  • Your own case. Picking a country or a start year turns the explainer into a small model you can test, the idea behind Bret Victor's Explorable Explanations.

Note 1 · 4 steps

What tax-to-GDP actually measures

How much of Uganda's economy passes through the tax system? Watch the needle.

Your turn
05%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%ATAF median 14.3%domesticcustoms0.0%OF GDP IN TAX
Domestic taxesCustomsATAF medianGap to the median

This gauge measures tax as a share of the economy, from nothing to 40% of GDP; no ATAF member collects more than about a third. Uganda's economy in 2024 was $164.7bn at purchasing-power parity, so each tick, 1% of GDP, is about $1.6bn.

Note 2 · 4 steps

Why the PPP figures still give a true ratio

ATAF's revenue numbers are in purchasing-power-parity dollars. Here is why that does not distort tax-to-GDP.

Your turn
GDPTax revenueconversion factor × 1.00tax / GDP = 12.6%

ATAF publishes Uganda's GDP and tax in US dollars at purchasing-power parity (PPP): $164.7bn and $20.8bn in 2024.

Note 3 · 5 steps

Catching up and drifting apart, at the same time

Two standard tests of convergence can disagree. On Africa's tax ratios, they do.

Your turn
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2012: mean ± one standard deviation (4.6 pts)2024: mean ± one standard deviation (5.7 pts)-1.0-0.50.0+0.5+1.00%5%10%15%20%25%30%Tax-to-GDP in 2012 (%)Change, points a yearAngola: 6.5% in 2012, 5.1% in 2024Benin: 10.5% in 2012, 14.4% in 2024Botswana: 14.4% in 2012, 13.1% in 2024Burkina Faso: 15.1% in 2012, 14.6% in 2024Burundi: 14.6% in 2012, 14.0% in 2024Cabo Verde: 17.9% in 2012, 19.7% in 2024Cameroon: 12.5% in 2012, 14.0% in 2024Côte d'Ivoire: 16.7% in 2012, 12.7% in 2024Democratic Republic of Congo: 10.1% in 2012, 9.8% in 2024Eswatini: 11.0% in 2012, 16.4% in 2024Gambia: 16.2% in 2012, 12.3% in 2024Ghana: 17.4% in 2012, 14.3% in 2024Kenya: 16.7% in 2012, 14.3% in 2024Lesotho: 16.5% in 2012, 21.3% in 2024Liberia: 21.4% in 2012, 12.1% in 2024Madagascar: 8.4% in 2012, 10.5% in 2024Malawi: 13.3% in 2012, 19.8% in 2024Mauritius: 16.6% in 2012, 20.0% in 2024Mozambique: 18.7% in 2012, 23.2% in 2024Namibia: 16.4% in 2012, 31.5% in 2024Niger: 10.0% in 2012, 7.1% in 2024Nigeria: 8.8% in 2012, 10.5% in 2024Rwanda: 13.1% in 2012, 14.6% in 2024Senegal: 18.6% in 2012, 17.9% in 2024Seychelles: 28.3% in 2012, 24.4% in 2024Sierra Leone: 11.9% in 2012, 8.0% in 2024South Africa: 21.9% in 2012, 24.5% in 2024Tanzania: 11.5% in 2012, 13.2% in 2024Togo: 16.5% in 2012, 18.0% in 2024Uganda: 9.9% in 2012, 12.6% in 2024Zambia: 16.1% in 2012, 18.0% in 2024Zimbabwe: 27.5% in 2012, 12.4% in 2024

32 ATAF members, placed by their tax-to-GDP ratio in 2012.

Note 4 · 4 steps

Tax buoyancy: does revenue outgrow the economy?

Using Uganda's own ATAF figures, 2010 to 2025.

Your turn
90100200300400201020132016201920222025GDP 350Tax 432Buoyancy 1.15

Uganda's GDP, indexed so that 2010 = 100, on a log scale (equal steps are equal percentage growth).

Note 5 · 4 steps

Two honest averages that disagree

Why a continental figure depends on whether each country counts once or each dollar does.

South Africa: Import duty 2.7% of taxNigeria: Import duty 7.3% of taxMorocco: Import duty 4.7% of taxKenya: Import duty 6.0% of taxGhana: Import duty 12.0% of taxTanzania: Import duty 7.1% of taxCôte d'Ivoire: Import duty 9.5% of taxCameroon: Import duty 9.5% of taxUganda: Import duty 7.6% of taxDemocratic Republic of Congo: Import duty 10.5% of taxSenegal: Import duty 10.7% of taxZambia: Import duty 7.1% of taxBurkina Faso: Import duty 10.9% of taxBenin: Import duty 13.0% of taxMauritius: Import duty 1.3% of taxRwanda: Import duty 6.2% of taxGabon: Import duty 12.5% of taxMalawi: Import duty 8.1% of taxMadagascar: Import duty 10.4% of taxTogo: Import duty 21.5% of taxNiger: Import duty 6.7% of taxChad: Import duty 17.5% of taxBurundi: Import duty 9.8% of taxSierra Leone: Import duty 12.7% of taxEswatini: Import duty 1.8% of taxGambia: Import duty 18.0% of taxCabo Verde: Import duty 19.7% of taxSeychelles: Import duty 3.9% of taxLiberia: Import duty 20.3% of taxEach country onceEach dollar once

29 countries, each drawn the same size, shaded by how much of their tax comes from import duty in 2024.