Case file EDA-2018-FUEL100
Excise duty on petrol and diesel raised by UGX 100 per litre
Highest rung reached: Official forecastLaw: read in a statutory textRate increase · Revenue
1 point pending verification
- Whether URA reports a yield for the measure: its FY2018/19 report does not mention it.
Law
- Principal Act
- Excise Duty Act (Cap 336), enacted as Act 11 of 2014
- Amending Act
- Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2018 (Act 9 of 2018) (verified)
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- Sch. 2, item 8
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- Sch. 2, Part I, item 8(a) and (b)
- Principal Act dates
- assent 2014-10-19; gazette 2014-10-24; commencement 2014-07-01; Uganda Gazette 61
- Amending Act in force from
- 1 July 2018 (assented 21 June 2018; gazetted 29 June 2018)
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Excise duty. Importers and consumers of petrol and diesel.
- Status
- Legal: pending verification. Implementation: pending verification.
| Section A: The law | |
|---|---|
| Amending Act | Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2018 (Act 9 of 2018) |
| In force from | 1 July 2018 |
| Assent | 21 June 2018 |
| Section B: What the law said before | |
| The wording before and after is set out in the redline below. | |
| *** END OF CHANGE SLIP *** | |
The redline
as at 2016-07-01
Deleted: (a) Motor spirit (gasoline): Ushs.1,100 per litre [item 8(b)] (b) Gas oil (automotive, light, amber for high speed engine): Ushs. 780/- per litre[ACT-EDA-2016-12, PDF page 3, s. 3(h) and (i)]
as at 2018-07-01
Inserted: (a) Motor spirit (gasoline): Shs.1200 per litre [item 8(b)] (b) Gas oil (automotive, light, amber for high speed engine): Shs.880 per litreVerified law: Wording or a date read in a statutory text, with the version and page named.[ACT-EDA-2018-9, PDF page 6, s. 6(f)]
Petrol from Ushs 1,100 to Shs 1,200 and diesel from Ushs 780 to Shs 880 per litre: both up by UGX 100. Struck: the rates set by Act 12 of 2016 (in force 1 July 2016), which no later Act read for this register changed before 2018.
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. The budget guide promised more fuel excise per litre. Whether the law changed that year is not yet confirmed.
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
Amendment-level revenue contribution not reliably quantified.
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- MoFPED: UGX 196.4 bn expected in FY2018/19 (Excise duty on diesel and petrol raised by UGX 100 per litre (budget proposal)).[MOF-CG-1819, printed page 8, PDF page 11]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.Missing. URA's annual revenue reports read for the register attribute no yield to this measure. URA's measure-level policy tables, where they exist, would settle it (URA Research and Planning).
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.Missing. No source read for the register describes effects on prices, compliance cost, investment or equity.
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast.
- Uncertain: reported yield, static or modelled estimate, causal estimate, wider impact; and 1 open point below.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
Verified: A source read for the register documents this link.
The provision is read in the ULII consolidated text.
- amendment: verified. The provision is read in the ULII consolidated text.
- mechanism: verified. A higher rate on an existing base.
- implementation: no evidence. No source read dates its implementation.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: no evidence. No reported yield or estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
No criterion graded effective on the evidence read.
What did not
No criterion graded ineffective or counterproductive on the evidence read.
Open or not evaluated
Revenue effectiveness
No pair of official forecast and reported yield in shillings.(graded by rule)
Not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Afterlife
Linked records
- This record amends Excise duty on petrol and diesel raised by UGX 50 per litre. A FY2018/19 budget proposal on the same item; enactment not confirmed. (pending)[MOF-CG-1819, printed page 8, PDF page 11]
- This record amends Excise duty on petrol set at UGX 1,100 and on diesel at UGX 780 per litre. Both substitute Schedule 2, item 8: the 2018 Act raises the 2016 rates by UGX 100 per litre. (verified)[ACT-EDA-2016-12, PDF page 3]
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- Whether URA reports a yield for the measure: its FY2018/19 report does not mention it.
Sources
MOF-CG-1819
Know Your Budget 2018: A Citizen's Guide to the Budget of FY 2018/19
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. 2018-06. Covers FY2018/19.
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 11 (PDF).
Fetched online and read page images of PDF pages 10 and 11 (printed pages 7 and 8). It summarises the budget speech; the speech itself was not read.
ACT-EDA-2016-12
Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2016 (Act 12 of 2016)
Parliament of Uganda, published by the Uganda Printing and Publishing Corporation. 2016-06-15. Covers Assented 28 May 2016; in force 1 July 2016.
Desktop/Tax legislation Amendment Acts/Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2016.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 3 (PDF).
Acts Supplement No. 9 to the Uganda Gazette No. 42, Volume CIX, dated 15 June 2016. Read from the text layer of the copy supplied by the author (4 pages).
ACT-EDA-2018-9
Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2018 (Act 9 of 2018)
Parliament of Uganda, published by the Uganda Printing and Publishing Corporation. 2018-06-29. Covers Assented 21 June 2018; in force 1 July 2018.
Desktop/Tax legislation Amendment Acts/Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2018.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 6 (PDF).
Acts Supplement No. 2 to the Uganda Gazette No. 33, Volume CXI, dated 29 June 2018. Read in full from the text layer of the copy supplied by the author (9 pages).
Corrections to this record
- 2026-10-21 Title corrected from a proposed rise to an enacted one; redline drawn from Acts 12 of 2016 and 9 of 2018. The two Acts show petrol rising from 1,100 to 1,200 and diesel from 780 to 880 shillings per litre from 1 July 2018. Previously: Proposed rise of UGX 100 per litre in excise duty on petrol and diesel.