31 Dec 2026
FY2025/26 outturn: net and gross URA collections / GDP
At or above 14.2% net, where the trend puts FY2025/26; DRMS2 needs 13.98% on its own basis
URA Annual Revenue Report FY2025/26; UBOS GDP
The road to a20% tax-to-GDP
ratio
BM 20.00
On 3 July 2026 the Ministry of Finance and URA agreed one target for Uganda. Here it is, in one line:
Tax collected
what URA brings in over a year
GDP
everything Uganda's economy produces in that year
20%
Shs 20 of every Shs 100
FY2029/30
the financial year ending 30 June 2030
Where Uganda stands
Shs 13,880 of every Shs 100,000
Picture what Uganda's economy produced in FY2024/25 as piles of one hundred Shs 1,000 coins. Of every hundred coins, URA collected about 14 in tax: Shs 13,880 of every Shs 100,000 (net of refunds). The target is 20 coins, Shs 20,000: another Shs 6,120 of every Shs 100,000, within five years. Hover or tab through the coins.
Net URA collections / GDP, FY2024/25, on one GDP series (UBOS, June 2026). Other published figures range from 13.00% to 14.70%: see §4.
The numbers
| Of every Shs 100,000 produced, collected today (net URA / GDP, FY2024/25) | Shs 13,880 |
| Target by FY2029/30 | Shs 20,000 |
| Still to find | Shs 6,120 |
13.88%
tax as a share of GDP today (FY2024/25)
+1.22
points a year needed to reach 20%, against +0.30 a year over the past decade
0 of 9
past years climbed that fast. The best was +1.00 (FY2020/21, a rebound after COVID)
17.0 to 17.8%
what the government's own plans project for tax by FY2029/30. None says 20
+24.1 trn
extra shillings needed in FY2029/30 alone: about everything URA collected in FY2022/23
So is 20% reachable? On the published numbers, only if every generous assumption is stacked, and oil revenue is counted as tax.
This page shows why, step by step. Begin ↓
§1 · How big is the gap?
6.12 points is more than three whole taxes
Below is everything URA collected in FY2024/25, as a share of GDP, tax by tax. To reach 20%, Uganda would need to add the gold block on top: more than today's VAT, PAYE and corporate income tax combined.
The numbers
| VAT | 2.22 |
| PAYE | 2.36 |
| Corporate tax | 1.43 |
| Excise | 1.07 |
| Other domestic | 2.25 |
| Trade taxes | 4.87 |
| Less refunds | −0.32 |
| Net URA collections | 13.88 |
| Gap to 20% | 6.12 |
| VAT + PAYE + corporate tax | 6.01 |
In short: the gap is bigger than three of Uganda's largest taxes put together.
In shillings
On the official GDP path, 20% of GDP in FY2029/30 is UGX 78.8 trillion. Holding today's ratio would bring about 54.7 trillion. The difference, in that one year, is about what URA collected in the whole of FY2022/23.
The numbers
| FY2015/16 | 11.2 trn |
| FY2016/17 | 12.7 trn |
| FY2017/18 | 14.5 trn |
| FY2018/19 | 16.6 trn |
| FY2019/20 | 16.8 trn |
| FY2020/21 | 19.3 trn |
| FY2021/22 | 21.7 trn |
| FY2022/23 | 25.2 trn |
| FY2023/24 | 27.3 trn |
| FY2024/25 | 31.6 trn |
| FY2029/30 at today's ratio | 54.7 trn |
| FY2029/30 at 20% | 78.8 trn |
| Extra needed | 24.1 trn |
Nominal shillings, not adjusted for inflation; FY2029/30 uses DRMS2's GDP path from the UBOS FY2024/25 figure (a scenario). Collections: URA net, Project 0.
§2 · How fast?
Never once in nine years
Each green bar is one year: how much the ratio rose (or, in red, fell). The gold bars are what 20% asks for: +1.22 points, every year, five years running. In nine years the ratio never climbed that much in a single year.
The numbers
| FY2016/17 | +0.55 |
| FY2017/18 | +0.28 |
| FY2018/19 | +0.58 |
| FY2019/20 | −0.59 |
| FY2020/21 | +1.00 |
| FY2021/22 | +0.32 |
| FY2022/23 | +0.47 |
| FY2023/24 | −0.38 |
| FY2024/25 | +0.48 |
| Needed each year to FY2029/30 | +1.22 |
In short: 20% needs Uganda's best year on record, beaten, five times in a row.
§3 · The benchmark
A level nobody surveyed
On a survey, a benchmark is a fixed level everything else is measured from. The 20% target is drawn here as one. Beside it, pegged at FY2029/30, are the levels the plans actually set.
The National Development Plan's highest tax figure is 17.8% (non-oil tax). The Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Strategy projects 17.03%. The often-quoted 18.3% is revenue, not tax; 18.7% adds grants.
In short: no plan aims at 20%. The plans' own roads (blue) stop at 17.0 to 17.8% for tax.
Observed NDP IV Table 4.5; DRMS2 Table 5; MoFPED, 3 July 2026; African average: DRMS2 p.7 (ATAF)§4 · The starting peg
Where does the road start?
A ratio has a numerator and a denominator. Eight published figures for FY2024/25 use different ones, and they span 13.00% to 14.70%. Choose the peg:
From 13.88% the benchmark is 6.12 points up.
In short: where you start moves the climb by more than a point.
Derived Lab (Project 0), UBOS June 2026 GDP§5 · The climb
The gradient
The green line is the ground: net URA collections as a share of GDP, on one GDP series. Over the decade it rose 0.30 points a year. Since FY2020/21, 0.22.
To reach 20% by FY2029/30 from 13.88%, the road must climb 1.22 points a year, about 4.1 times as steep. Revenue would have to grow 20% a year in shillings, 1.67 times as fast as GDP. The decade managed 1.27.
In short: the road to a 20% tax-to-GDP ratio is 4.1 times as steep as the road Uganda has travelled.
Press ▶ Walk the road on the drawing to see the two paths part, year by year.
Derived Lab series (Project 0); GDP path: DRMS2 Table 5§6 · Your road
Draw the road yourself
Dashed lines are scenarios, never forecasts. Pick one, or adjust the assumptions. Each changes the drawing and is written out below.
16.05%FY2029/30 · 3.95 points below the benchmark
- Nominal GDP follows DRMS2 Table 5, from the UBOS FY2024/25 figure.
- Revenue grows 1.27 times as fast as GDP.
- No DRMS2 measures on top.
- Past policy measures' reported yields came to a median 0.96 of forecast (n=39); administrative, 0.98 (n=5, the thinnest evidence here). Reported yields are URA's attribution, not a causal estimate.
In short: your road ends at 16.05%, 3.95 below the benchmark.
Scenario, not a forecast Scenario: lib/fiscalLab/roadTo20.ts§7 · With and without oil
Does oil count?
Oil is expected to flow from FY2026/27. It enlarges GDP before it adds much revenue, and most oil revenue goes into the Petroleum Fund, not the budget: the budget may draw at most 0.8% of last year's non-oil GDP.
Whether the 20% counts oil revenue is not stated. Both answers stay on the drawing; choose which to bring forward.
| Without | tax / total GDP | 15.38% |
| Without | tax / non-oil GDP | 15.91% |
| With | tax + budget's 0.8% draw | 16.09% |
| With | tax + all oil revenue | 17.50% |
FY2029/30, trend continuing at buoyancy 1.27. Oil value added is built from the barrel up: 230,000 barrels a day at plateau, Brent US$70 less the US$12.77 pipeline tariff. The IMF and the Budget Speech agree on the revenue (about 2% of GDP); MoFPED's GDP path behind it is not published.
In short: counting oil revenue as tax is worth about 2.1 points. The definition matters as much as most of the strategy.
Scenario, not a forecast Oil inputs: World Bank CMO April 2026; EACOP HGA; Budget Speech Annex 1; IMF PR 26/265§8 · The reading
What the survey says
Without oil revenue, no road on this drawing reaches the benchmark. The trend reaches about 16.1%. Every DRMS2 measure counted in full, on top of the trend, reaches 19.5%, and that counts past measures twice.
The benchmark is crossed only when those generous assumptions are stacked and oil revenue is counted as tax (§9).
This is not a forecast that the target will be missed. It is what the published numbers allow.
Interpretation§9 · What gets us there?
Stacking every assumption
Start from today and add each step the documents allow, one at a time. Each bar is the difference between two full runs of the model, not a guess at the parts. Switch the measures and the oil reading to see which assumption carries the road over the benchmark.
FY2029/30: 20.15% · the road crosses the benchmark by 0.15
The numbers
| Today | 13.88 |
| Trend continues | 16.05 |
| + DRMS2 measures (median of past reported yields) | 18.72 |
| Oil enlarges GDP | 18.03 |
| Oil revenue counted as tax | 20.15 |
In short: 20% is reached only when the trend continues, the DRMS2 measures are added on top, and oil revenue is counted as tax.
- The trend already contains a decade of new measures, so adding DRMS2 on top is generous.
- Most oil revenue goes to the Petroleum Fund, not the budget: in FY2029/30 the budget may draw 2,776 bn of 8,351 bn.
- Whether the 20% target counts oil revenue has not been stated by the Ministry. Both readings are shown throughout.
§10 · Bill of quantities
What the documented measures add
DRMS2 prices sixteen strategies for FY2029/30. Each line shows the official figure and the range of what URA reported past measures of its kind yielded against their forecasts. Six measures in the FY2026/27 budget carry no figure at all: their rate is left blank, not guessed.
| Item | Measure | Type | Official, UGX bn | Past reported yields applied (lower to upper quartile; ● median, ◆ official) | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Integration of business registries and payment systems | Adminn=5 | 475.4 | ●◆ | 2 yr |
| 2 | EFRIS and URA automation | Adminn=5 | 471.2 | ●◆ | 2 yr |
| 3 | Property tax digital mapping and reform | Adminn=5 | 219.4 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 4 | Third-party information integration (banks, insurers) | Adminn=5 | 218.6 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 5 | Digitalisation of licensing and permits | Adminn=5 | 218.1 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 6 | Formalisation of informal businesses | Adminn=5 | 209.6 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 7 | Automation of customs and border procedures | Adminn=5 | 183.4 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 8 | VAT tax expenditure rationalisation | Policy | 156.9 | ●◆ | 2 yr |
| 9 | Withholding tax policy reform | Policy | 150.5 | ●◆ | 2 yr |
| 10 | E-invoicing VAT rebate scheme | Policy | 149.2 | ●◆ | 2 yr |
| 11 | Widening presumptive tax | Policy | 74.8 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 12 | Review and streamline local government taxes | Policy | 73.4 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 13 | Rental income tax harmonisation | Policy | 70.3 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 14 | Rationalisation of customs tax expenditure | Policy | 0.0 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 15 | Improved taxpayer services (USSD, mobile tech) | Adminn=5 | 0.0 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 16 | Illicit financial flows enforcement | Adminn=5 | 0.0 | ●◆ | 1 yr |
| 17 | 5 percent withholding tax on interest paid to foreign lending institutions | Income tax | none | no estimate found (Budget Speech FY2026/27, p.43) | not stated |
| 18 | Monthly filing and payment of rental income tax | Income tax | none | no estimate found (Budget Speech FY2026/27, p.43) | not stated |
| 19 | Tax holiday for hotels and ultra-luxury tourism facilities (USD 10m foreign, USD 5m Ugandan) | Income tax | none | no estimate found (Budget Speech FY2026/27, p.43) | not stated |
| 20 | Bad-debt provisioning deductions for Tier 4 financial institutions | Income tax | none | no estimate found (Budget Speech FY2026/27, p.43) | not stated |
| 21 | VAT deferment extended to inputs for iron ore processing | VAT | none | no estimate found (Budget Speech FY2026/27, p.43) | not stated |
| 22 | Waiver of principal, penalty and interest owed as at 30 June 2016; interest and penalty waiver to 30 June 2025 if principal is paid by 30 June 2027 | Tax procedures | none | no estimate found (Budget Speech FY2026/27, p.44) | not stated |
| Total of the sixteen rows (DRMS2 prints 2,700.3) | 2670.8 | 273.2 to 4416.9; median 2607.4 | |||
| After the 20% overlap discount | 2136.6 | median 2085.9 |
Official: DRMS2 Table 10, pp.41 to 42 (OFFICIAL_FORECAST). Ranges: reported yield over official forecast for past measures in the amendment register (policy n=39, median 0.96; administrative n=5, median 0.98). An attribution record, not a causal estimate.
§11 · Site diary
How we would know
Signs that would move before the annual ratio does. Each has a date on which this drawing will be checked and re-surveyed.
31 Jan 2027
FY2026/27 half-year collections against DRMS2's path
Revenue on track for UGX 44.6 trillion (DRMS2) or 46.0 trillion (Budget Speech, oil included)
URA monthly and quarterly performance reports
30 Jun 2027
EFRIS and registry integration (DRMS2's two largest strategies, 947 bn in FY2029/30)
E-invoices issued and taxpayers on EFRIS rising before FY2027/28, when the yields are meant to start
URA annual report; EFRIS statistics
30 Jun 2027
Taxpayer register and active filers
Growth in active filers, not only registrations
URA annual report
30 Jun 2027
The FY2027/28 Budget Speech
Measures priced against DRMS2's FY2027/28 increments (2,157 bn)
MoFPED Budget Speech, June 2027
30 Sept 2027
First oil and Petroleum Fund inflows
Oil revenue of about UGX 1.8 trillion in FY2026/27 as framed, shown separately from tax
Bank of Uganda Petroleum Fund reports; MoFPED
§12 · Not yet surveyed
What we don't know
- Which ratio the 20% measures, and whether it counts oil revenue. Asked of the Ministry of Finance.
- Why two official projections disagree. The Budget Speech's FY2029/30 tax revenue is 15.45% of DRMS2's GDP; DRMS2 projects 17.03%, UGX 6.2 trillion more.
- DRMS2's path is a straight line: revenue / GDP rises exactly 0.77 points a year, and each year's measures equal exactly 0.770% of the previous year's GDP. Its Table 10 rows add to 2,670.8, not the printed 2,700.3.
- MoFPED's oil and non-oil GDP path. The Petroleum Fund withdrawals in the Budget Speech leave room for less oil value added than the barrels imply from FY2027/28.
- Six measures with no revenue figure, and the mechanism behind the Shs 349 billion attributed to a higher VAT threshold.
Method and sources
Ratios use one GDP series (UBOS annual GDP, June 2026 release). Collections: URA, recomputed in the Lab's shared evidence base. Scenarios grow revenue with GDP at a stated buoyancy and add each year's measure yield, which then persists. Oil value added = barrels × (Brent − pipeline tariff) × value-added share × exchange rate; the production ramp and the 0.75 value-added share are assumptions with ranges.
Sources: MoFPED news item (3 July 2026); NDP IV (March 2025); DRMS2 (May 2026); Budget Speech FY2026/27 and its Annex 1; Charter for Fiscal Responsibility (August 2026); IMF 2026 Article IV press release; World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2026); EACOP Host Government Agreement terms as reported to Parliament; the TaxIntellilytics amendment register. Every figure is in the Lab's registry with its page.
Test a change to income tax yourself: A Hundred Pay Packets. The technical companion: Tax Lab, Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Decomposition. Method notes: Methodology.
Surveyed 28 Oct 2026 · next review 31 Dec 2026