Census of Business Establishments, 2019/20
Fewer than five employees
81.7% of 686,700 fixed businesses
Fixed premises only
Fiscal Intelligence and Reform Lab
Where Uganda's economic activity reaches the tax system, and where, and why, it does not. Each layer is printed by its own source on its own sheet of glass. Stand them in the light and watch where it knots, pinches and scatters.
Our notes are in red pencil. Every sheet names its source in its margin. Nothing here is a tax assessment or a finding about any business.
1 of 9 The light
Each ribbon is one of the 20 activities UBOS measures. Where it passes the value sheet, its width is that activity's share of the UGX 210,771 bn of value added in FY2024/25. Agriculture is the widest, at 28.3%. Then manufacturing, then trade.
The other seven sheets stand in the light's path, each printed by its own source. Each counts a different thing, so a ribbon swells where its activity is a bigger share of that sheet, and thins where it is smaller. Hover any ribbon to read it; choose one to follow it through all eight.
Sheets standing here: Value.
2 of 9 Sheet 8, collected
Trade, 10.4% of value added, widens to 25.6% of collections. Agriculture, 28.3% of value added, narrows to a thread: 1.6%.
Sheets standing here: Value, Collected.
3 of 9 Sheet 8, read with care
Arts and recreation shows collections larger than its own value added (108.5%). Finance shows 62.4%, ICT 50.2%. URA books tax to whoever pays it over, including VAT and excise charged to customers and PAYE withheld from employees. Which taxes make up each figure is not published.
Sheets standing here: Value, Collected.
4 of 9 Sheet 4, the law
The law sheet is not a count, so the light passes straight through it. Yellow hatching marks activities that are VAT exempt in part: unprocessed farm produce, residential rent, passenger transport, finance, education, health, betting. A cross marks activities the law keeps out of the small business regime. Farming income is taxable; it is the produce that is VAT exempt.
Sheets standing here: Value, Law, Collected.
5 of 9 Sheet 5, liable
Small business tax starts at UGX 10m of turnover a year. In the 2019/20 census, 55.4% of the 686,700 fixed-premises businesses reported turnover above it, about 198,748 of them in trade.
Watch real estate, professional and admin services knot into one band: the census counts them together. Electricity and water knot too, and arts with other services. Public administration and households pinch shut: the census does not count them.
Sheets standing here: Value, Law, Liable, Collected.
6 of 9 Sheet 6, registered
Registration by activity is not published. VAT returns are: a VAT-registered firm files every month, so expected returns divided by twelve suggest about 11,833 VAT filers in trade in FY2023/24. URA's sectors use the same classification as UBOS, so here every ribbon passes cleanly.
Sheets standing here: Value, Law, Liable, Registered, Collected.
7 of 9 Sheet 1, activity
The first sheet counts everyone employed in 2021, by the industry of their main job: agriculture 35.9%, trade 22.8%, transport 6.2%. Watch nine activities, from mining to arts, knot into one band: the published table prints them only together, as “other activities”.
Switch sheet 1 to the 2025 Labour Market Survey and it counts only people in informal businesses: 3,899,884 in trade, but just 13,843 in transport and 42,547 in agriculture, because it counts establishments, not farms or roads. Four ribbons pinch shut there.
Sheets standing here: Activity, Value, Law, Liable, Registered, Collected.
8 of 9 Sheets 2 and 7
No one publishes, by activity, who keeps records, or what is left to tax after deductions, exemptions and thresholds. At those sheets the light scatters. Those are the layers where a gap would become a number; without them, no ribbon can be followed from work done to tax collected.
Sheets standing here: Activity, Records, Value, Law, Liable, Registered, Taxable base, Collected.
9 of 9 All eight
That is the finding. Not that any activity pays too little, but that each source sees a different economy, much of the gap is the law, and the sheets that would settle it are frosted. Stand or lift any sheet with the rack, and choose any ribbon to follow it.
Sheets standing here: Activity, Records, Value, Law, Liable, Registered, Taxable base, Collected.
Each sheet is a different whole: people, shillings, businesses, filers. A ribbon widening means a larger share of that sheet's whole, not that anything flowed from one sheet to the next. Hatched grey: counted by the source but not against any activity. Choose a sheet's name to see the printed page it comes from.
Plate 1 · Value against tax
Lift two sheets off the table and set them side by side: the value each activity adds, and what URA collects from the businesses in it. Agriculture makes more than a quarter of the value; it is booked for under 2% of collections.
Left: share of value added (UBOS). Right: share of URA's gross collections, booked to the payer. Lines rising to the right: activities carrying more of collections than of value added. Tap or hover a line.
Log scale: each step is ten times the last. Above 100%, an activity hands URA more than the whole value it adds, so the money must come from its customers or staff. Collections include VAT and excise charged to customers and PAYE withheld from employees.
Hover or tab to a circle.
Across: growth in value added (1.5 means up 50%). Up, on a log scale: growth in collections. On the dashed line they grew at the same rate. Circle area: collections in FY2024/25. Administrative support starts from UGX 23 bn in FY2021/22 and is UGX 277 bn a year later, a jump URA's table does not explain, so read its rise with care.
Plate 2 · Who can see what
Registration marks only line up when every sheet uses the same activities. Most do not.
A full cell: the source has its own figure for that activity. Hatched: it is joined with others. Empty: not covered. Dashed: covered, but not validated. Only the first three line up with every activity.
Plate 3 · The informal
None of them means unregistered for tax. Laid over each other, they describe different economies.
Census of Business Establishments, 2019/20
81.7% of 686,700 fixed businesses
Fixed premises only
Labour Market Survey, 2025
7,350,199 people working in them
Establishments only: transport shows 13,843
Labour Force Survey, 2021
66.6% of 6,405,000 employed
People, not businesses
Household Survey, 2023/24
32.4% of people live with one
35% run from home; 18% from shops
Places: shares of non-crop household enterprises, from the report's text (home 35%, marketplace 18%, commercial shop 18%, industrial site 1%); the remaining 28% (roadside, other fixed places and mobile) is not split in the text. Each dot is 1%. The business census counts fixed-location businesses only. Industries: UNHS 2019/20 (hollow) to 2023/24 (solid).
UBOS, Statistical Abstract 2025, Table 13.15. Three surveys: NLFS 2016/17, UNHS 2019/20, NLFS 2021.
Plate 4 · The thresholds
The law starts small business tax at UGX 10m, the normal regime at UGX 150m, and VAT registration at UGX 300m from 2026. The census only asks up to 10m.
The ruler is turnover, from UGX 1m to 600m. The census asks only which of three bands a business is in: under 5m, 5m to 10m, over 10m. Everything over 10m is one band, so a floor at 150m or 300m lands inside it and cannot be read. Bars: each census sector, split into the same three bands.
Plate 5 · Filing
URA publishes VAT returns by sector. Its four columns do not add up to the returns it expected, and the table does not say why.
Each bar is the returns URA expected from a sector in the year (VAT is filed monthly), split as the table prints it: payment, offset, nil and non-filer returns. The hatched remainder is what those four do not add up to, which the data book does not explain. The 12 largest sectors shown.
One ribbon at a time, through all eight sheets. Its thickness at each sheet is its share there; where the light pinches, the source does not count it, and where it scatters, no one publishes the layer.
10.4% of value added and 25.6% of collections. 388,179 fixed businesses in the census, 198,748 of them above UGX 10m. About 11,833 VAT filers, with 30% of expected returns recorded as non-filer returns. Half of all household enterprises are in trade.
Passenger transport is VAT exempt and pays an advance tax of UGX 20,000 a seat a year, with tax clearance before licences are renewed. 189,303 motorcycles were newly registered in 2024; a registered motorcycle is not necessarily a commercial boda boda. The census found 2,881 fixed transport businesses.
Real estate is 6.2% of value added, but UBOS's figure includes the rent owners are counted as paying themselves to live in their own homes, which is not taxable income. Its share is not in the tables we read. Residential letting is VAT exempt; individuals pay 12% on gross rent above UGX 2.82m a year.
28.3% of value added and 1.6% of collections, with 35.9% of the employed in 2021. Farming income is taxable business income; unprocessed produce is VAT exempt. The census counts 10,669 fixed agricultural businesses; how many farmers are above the UGX 10m floor is not measured.
ICT carries 7.0% of collections and finance 11.6%, much of it collected from customers. E-invoices and mobile-money transactions leave records, but neither is a measure of taxable value until it is validated. From 2025, digital services supplied to an associate in Uganda were moved from the non-resident digital services tax into withholding (register: ITA-2025-DIGITAL). Mobile-money figures were not read for this project.
Your ribbon
Choose the work you do. See which sheets count it, what the law says about it, and where its record goes blank. Then keep the card.
Each figure comes from a printed table: Table 13.15; Table 8.1; Table A.104; Table 3.9.2 and more, in the spectrum above.
Options, not recommendations. None raises revenue on its own; each would let a later decision be argued from evidence.
| Option | What it would show | Administrative cost |
|---|---|---|
| Publish registration and filing by activity and regime | The registration sheet (6) for every activity | None found; URA already holds the data |
| Ask UBOS for turnover bands at UGX 150m and 300m in the next census | Who is above the normal regime and VAT thresholds | None found |
| Reconcile the small business register against the exclusions in s.4(8) | Firms the export lists that the law excludes | None found |
| Publish collections by activity split into taxes borne and taxes collected for others | The collected sheet (8) misread as burden | None found |
| Count home-based and mobile enterprises, using survey modules that exist | The activity sheet (1) missing most of transport | No marginal cost estimate found |
One question for URA, not a finding: its small business register export, which has not been validated, lists professional, construction and health firms the law keeps out of that regime.
Every figure is transcribed by script from the source named and checked against its printed total; tests recompute them. Value added: UBOS Statistical Abstract 2025, Table A.104. Collections: URA Data Book FY2024/25, Table 1.1.3. VAT returns: URA Data Book FY2023/24, Table 2.3.2. Businesses: UBOS Census of Business Establishments 2019/20. Workers: UBOS Labour Market Survey 2025 and Labour Force Survey 2021. Household enterprises: UBOS Household Surveys 2019/20 and 2023/24. Law: Income Tax Act as consolidated by ULII to 23 December 2024, URA's compendium of domestic tax laws as of July 2021, and our register of amendments for 2025 and 2026.
Aggregates only. No taxpayer or firm-level data. Updated 6 November 2026. Related: Does Tax Technology Pay for Itself?
| Activity | Value added, UGX bn | Collected, UGX bn | Collected as % of value added | VAT filers implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 59,549 | 528 | 0.9 | 608 |
| Mining and quarrying | 2,622 | 705 | 26.9 | 140 |
| Manufacturing | 32,982 | 7,186 | 21.8 | 2,079 |
| Electricity | 2,390 | 763 | 31.9 | 352 |
| Water and waste | 4,847 | 143 | 2.9 | 119 |
| Construction | 12,468 | 759 | 6.1 | 3,934 |
| Trade and repairs | 21,842 | 8,298 | 38.0 | 11,833 |
| Transport and storage | 8,661 | 465 | 5.4 | 1,355 |
| Accommodation and food | 5,278 | 300 | 5.7 | 1,440 |
| Information and communication | 4,491 | 2,254 | 50.2 | 1,259 |
| Finance and insurance | 6,006 | 3,750 | 62.4 | 407 |
| Real estate | 12,970 | 821 | 6.3 | 1,421 |
| Professional, scientific and technical | 4,729 | 612 | 12.9 | 2,067 |
| Administrative and support | 4,289 | 335 | 7.8 | 997 |
| Public administration | 6,230 | 1,330 | 21.3 | 812 |
| Education | 8,130 | 541 | 6.7 | 75 |
| Health and social work | 6,776 | 616 | 9.1 | 180 |
| Arts and recreation | 353 | 383 | 108.5 | 262 |
| Other services | 4,674 | 678 | 14.5 | 2,428 |
| Households as employers | 1,484 | 27 | 1.8 | 85 |