Case file EDA-2021-FUEL100
Additional UGX 100 per litre on petrol and diesel
Highest rung reached: Reported yieldLaw: pending verificationRate increase · Revenue
2 points pending verification
- The amending Act: Act 6 of 2021 and Act 16 of 2021 are both listed for the Excise Duty Act; neither was read.
- The forecast for the measure itself: URA prints only a performance rate.
Law
- Principal Act
- Excise Duty Act (Cap 336), enacted as Act 11 of 2014
- Amending Act
- Pending verification
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- Sch. 2, item 8
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- assent 2014-10-19; gazette 2014-10-24; commencement 2014-07-01; Uganda Gazette 61
- Amending Act in force from
- assent, gazettement and commencement dates pending
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Excise duty. Importers and consumers of petrol and diesel.
- Status
- Legal: superseded. Implementation: implemented.
The wording in force
as at 2025-07-01
Motor spirit (gasoline): Ushs. 1450 per litre. Gas oil (automotive, light, amber for high speed engine): Ushs. 1130 per litre Verified law: Wording or a date read in a statutory text, with the version and page named.[ULII-EDA-2025, printed page 13, PDF page 15, Schedule 2, item 8(a) and (b)]
Redline pending verification
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. Fuel excise went up again. URA reports the measure close to what was expected.
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.Missing. No official forecast for this measure was found in the budget documents or URA reports read. The budget speech and the Finance Bill memorandum for the year would settle it (MoFPED).
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.- URA reports UGX 204.21 bn for FY2021/22.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.Missing. No source read for the register describes effects on prices, compliance cost, investment or equity.
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: reported yield.
- Uncertain: official forecast, static or modelled estimate, causal estimate, wider impact; and 2 open points below.
- Would settle it: Request to the Clerk to Parliament for certified copies of the Excise Duty, Income Tax, Value Added Tax, Stamp Duty and Tax Procedures Code (Amendment) Acts of 2015 to 2025, with their dates of assent and Gazette notice numbers. Held by Uganda Printing and Publishing Corporation (Uganda Gazette); Parliament of Uganda Library; ULII.
- Would settle it: Request to MoFPED's Tax Policy Department for the revenue estimates of each tax measure in the budget speeches and the explanatory memoranda to the Finance Bills, FY2014/15 to FY2025/26. Held by Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (Tax Policy Department).
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
No evidence: Nothing read speaks to this link. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- amendment: no evidence. The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- mechanism: hypothesised. A higher rate on an existing base.
- implementation: verified. URA reports performance for the measure, so it was applied.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: verified. URA reports a yield. It is an official attribution, not a causal estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
No criterion graded effective on the evidence read.
What did not
No criterion graded ineffective or counterproductive on the evidence read.
Open or not evaluated
Revenue effectiveness
No pair of official forecast and reported yield in shillings.(graded by rule)
Not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Afterlife
Linked records
- This record amends Excise duty on petrol and diesel raised by UGX 50 per litre. Both raise the excise duty on petrol and diesel in Schedule 2, item 8. The steps between them were not read. (pending)[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- The amending Act: Act 6 of 2021 and Act 16 of 2021 are both listed for the Excise Duty Act; neither was read.
- The forecast for the measure itself: URA prints only a performance rate.
Sources
URA-ARR-2122
Annual Revenue Report FY 2021/22
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2022. Covers FY2021/22.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenue Report FY 2021-22.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 53 (PDF).
Table 22 and its commentary (PDF pages 52 to 54, printed 45 to 47) read from page images.
ULII-EDA-2025
Excise Duty Act (Chapter 336), version of 1 July 2025
Uganda Legal Information Institute (ULII) and Laws.Africa, from the Law Reform Commission revision. 2025-07-01. Covers Text in force from 1 July 2025; revised and consolidated as at 31 December 2023, later amendments applied by Laws.Africa.
Desktop/Personal/Tax Legislation and URA Returns/Excise Duty Act Cap 336.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 15 (PDF).
Read in full with pdftotext. Lists amending Acts on PDF page 3.