TaxIntellilytics Stories

The dispatch book · File 007 · last verified 28 October 2026

TaxIntellilytics Stories · The Dispatch Book · taxintellilyticsstories.com/research/reform-tracker/TIL-REF-2026-007 · printed

File 007 · from IMF · to MoFPED and Parliament

Improve revenue forecasting.

314days in the tray, no public evidence of actionRecommended 18 Dec 2025

Evidence slip

Sent18.12.25ReviewedLawDone

From IMF · to MoFPED (policy; presents tax bills) and Parliament (enactment) · All

“Improve revenue and expenditure forecasting.”

section 13, PFM

The desks

Sent18.12.25Uganda: Selected IMF Staff Findings and Policy Recommendatio…
Reviewed
no evidence
Law
no evidence
Funded
no evidence
Under way
no evidence
Done
no evidence
Evaluated
no evidence

Sent, 18 December 2025. Recommended in Uganda: Selected IMF Staff Findings and Policy Recommendations (section 13, PFM).

The route slip

From finding to result, link by link

Each box is one link of the reform chain. ✓ documented; ? claimed but not documented; · no evidence yet, with what it needs. This file stops at: Action.

  1. FindingDocumentedIMF staff recommend: Improve revenue and expenditure forecasting.
  2. ProblemDocumentedForecast errors weaken budget credibility.
  3. RecommendationDocumented"Improve revenue and expenditure forecasting." (IMF (IMF and IDA staff), section 13, PFM)
  4. Legal powerDocumentedPFM Act 2015 s.8 (the Minister presents tax and revenue bills to Parliament); opened, PFMA-S8
  5. InstitutionNamedMoFPED (policy; presents tax bills) and Parliament (enactment)
  6. ActionNo evidence yetneeds a dated decision, response or delivery document
  7. OutputNo evidence yetneeds a published output measure
  8. OutcomeNo evidence yetneeds an outcome measure with a baseline
  9. EvaluationNo evidence yetneeds an evaluation with a stated method

Why it was recommended

Finding. IMF staff recommend: Improve revenue and expenditure forecasting.

Problem. Forecast errors weaken budget credibility.

Strength of the evidence behind it: medium.

Who has the power to act

MoFPED (policy; presents tax bills) and Parliament (enactment). Legal power checked: PFM Act 2015 s.8 (the Minister presents tax and revenue bills to Parliament); opened, PFMA-S8.

Sources