The dispatch book · File 031 · last verified 28 October 2026
TaxIntellilytics Stories · The Dispatch Book · taxintellilyticsstories.com/research/reform-tracker/TIL-REF-2026-031 · printed
File 031 · from BMJ Open · to MoFPED and Parliament
Consistently increase excise taxes on cigarettes.
2,313days from recommendation to lawExcise Duty (Amendment) Act 2025, signed 30 Jun 2025
Evidence slip
From BMJ Open · to MoFPED (policy; presents tax bills) and Parliament (enactment) · Excise
“consistently increasing excise taxes can play a significant role in reducing consumption”
Discussion, PDF p.7
The desks
no evidence
no evidence
no evidence
no evidence
no evidence
Sent, 1 March 2019. Recommended in Does cigarette demand respond to price increases in Uganda? Price elasticity estimates using the Uganda National Panel Survey and Deaton's method (Discussion, PDF p.7).
Law, 30 June 2025. Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2025 raised excise on cigarettes, with imported packs charged at more than double the local rate, in force 1 July 2025 (register EDA-2025-CIGARETTES).
The route slip
From finding to result, link by link
Each box is one link of the reform chain. ✓ documented; ? claimed but not documented; · no evidence yet, with what it needs. This file stops at: Output.
- FindingDocumentedThe conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand in Uganda is about -0.30 (total likely about twice that); excise taxes are below the WHO benchmark of 70% of retail price.
- ProblemDocumentedCigarette excise in Uganda is low relative to WHO guidance.
- RecommendationClaimed, not documentedBMJ Open 2019. HYPOTHESISED: that the 2025 increase drew on this evidence; the Act does not say
- Legal powerDocumentedPFM Act 2015 s.8 (the Minister presents tax and revenue bills to Parliament); opened, PFMA-S8
- InstitutionNamedMoFPED (policy; presents tax bills) and Parliament (enactment)
- ActionDocumentedcigarette excise raised by the Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2025 (register EDA-2025-CIGARETTES)
- OutputNo evidence yetneeds a published output measure
- OutcomeNo evidence yetneeds cigarette consumption and the excise share of retail price, before and after
- EvaluationNo evidence yetneeds an evaluation with a stated method
In the amendment register
Became law 2313 days after this recommendation
Excise duty on cigarettes raised, with imported packs charged at more than double the local rate
Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2025 · signed 30 June 2025 · in force 1 July 2025 · implementation: pending verification
Open the register's case file EDA-2025-CIGARETTES →Why it was recommended
Finding. The conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand in Uganda is about -0.30 (total likely about twice that); excise taxes are below the WHO benchmark of 70% of retail price.
Problem. Cigarette excise in Uganda is low relative to WHO guidance.
Strength of the evidence behind it: high.
Note. The paper recommends consistent increases; one increase is in the register for 2025 (and one in 2016, before the paper). Whether increases are now consistent needs the series.
Who has the power to act
MoFPED (policy; presents tax bills) and Parliament (enactment). Legal power checked: PFM Act 2015 s.8 (the Minister presents tax and revenue bills to Parliament); opened, PFMA-S8.
Sources
- Does cigarette demand respond to price increases in Uganda? Price elasticity estimates using the Uganda National Panel Survey and Deaton's method
BMJ Open (Chelwa, van Walbeek) · 2019-03-01 · Discussion, PDF p.7
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026150 - Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2025 (Act 14 of 2025)
Parliament of Uganda · 2025-06-30 · PDF p.2; in force 1 Jul 2025