Tax Lab · Macro-fiscal & revenue mobilisation
Uganda Oil Fiscal Model
Uganda's real, live fiscal trajectory from the IMF, debt, the current account and growth, refreshed every six hours, as the real backdrop oil revenue would land on.
Every number on this page comes from a live IMF API call. Fetched 2026-11-07 04:26 UTC; refreshed at most every six hours.
Why this page doesn't show an oil-revenue series
The Tax Lab catalogue describes this prototype as a scenario model: three Brent crude price paths run through Uganda's announced production timeline to project petroleum revenue and its interaction with the existing fiscal position, including Dutch Disease risk. Uganda's own production has been publicly targeted for 2026, with the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) targeted to begin exports shortly after; both dates have already slipped more than once in public reporting, so this page does not assert a production date or invent a revenue series for one. What it shows instead is real and live: the existing non-oil fiscal position the catalogue entry's own method is actually about, debt, the current account and growth, direct from the IMF, including the IMF's own forward projections (marked as forecasts, not this site's).
The live data
Live, IMF World Economic Outlook
Debt and the current account, together
Hover a point. Solid markers are IMF-recorded outturns; hollow markers on the dashed segment are the IMF's own forecasts, not this site's. The path traces Uganda's actual year-by-year position, not a fitted trend. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (SDMX 3.0).
Live, IMF World Economic Outlook
Real GDP growth, by year
Hover a point. Solid stems are recorded outturns; dashed hollow stems are the IMF's own forecast years. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook.
Reading this
Debt-to-GDP climbing while the current account stays in deficit is the position oil revenue is meant to help: a sustained current-account deficit means Uganda has been a net borrower from the rest of the world, and crude exports would be the first major switch in that balance. Whether that improves the debt path depends on how the revenue is spent and saved, not just on how much of it there is, which is exactly why the catalogue entry's own method pairs a revenue scenario with a Dutch Disease risk channel rather than reporting a petroleum-revenue number in isolation.
Limitations
- No live, keyless Brent crude price feed was available through the API kit this page uses; the catalogue entry's own three-price-path scenario isn't reproduced here.
- IMF WEO forecast years are the IMF's own published projections (a standard part of the WEO database), not this site's modelling, and are revised at every WEO vintage; the figures shown are a snapshot as of whenever this page last loaded.
- Government debt and current-account figures are whole-economy aggregates; they don't isolate what share of future change would be oil-driven versus everything else moving at the same time.
Source, called live: IMF World Economic Outlook database (SDMX 3.0 API). Indicators: NGDP_RPCH (real GDP growth), GGXWDG_NGDP (general government gross debt, % of GDP), BCA_NGDPD (current account balance, % of GDP).