Tax Lab · Compliance, risk & behaviour
Tax Morale and Compliance Behavioural Forecasting Model
Uganda's real, live governance indicators from the World Bank, alongside real, published survey findings on what Ugandans themselves say about trust, fairness and willingness to pay tax.
The governance indicators are live. The Afrobarometer figures are real and published, not live-fetched (Afrobarometer has no public data API). Fetched 2026-11-07 04:26 UTC; refreshed at most every six hours.
What this shows
The Tax Lab catalogue describes this prototype as a Structural Equation Model fitting the causal chain perceived corruption, then institutional trust, then tax morale, then voluntary compliance, then revenue buoyancy, using Afrobarometer survey waves alongside a UGATsDB administrative compliance panel. The compliance panel is the component the catalogue entry itself already flags as most likely still illustrative pending a verified extract, and fitting a real SEM needs that panel plus the raw survey microdata, neither of which this repo has. What this page does instead: show the real inputs that chain would actually run on, live institutional-quality data from the World Bank, and real, specifically sourced findings from the published Afrobarometer dispatches themselves, rather than a fitted model dressed up to look more rigorous than the data behind it would support.
The data
Live, World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators
Uganda's governance profile, 2025
Each axis runs roughly -2.5 (weakest) to +2.5 (strongest) across all countries the World Bank scores. The shaded shape is Uganda's real position in 2025, the most recent year the World Bank had published when this page loaded.
Live, World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators
Every dimension, every year
Hover a cell. Green is stronger, red is weaker, on the World Bank's own -2.5 to +2.5 scale. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, live.
Real, published, not live-fetched (Afrobarometer has no public data API)
What Ugandans themselves say
56%
say most or all tax officials are corrupt
Afrobarometer AD1127 (2026)
35%
trust URA somewhat or a lot
Afrobarometer AD1127 (2026)
61%
say government has the right to make people pay taxes, down 23 points since 2017
Afrobarometer AD1127 (2026)
65%
say ordinary people pay too much in tax
Afrobarometer AD1127 (2026)
67%
think it's fair to tax the rich at a higher rate than ordinary people
Afrobarometer PP89 (2023)
Afrobarometer, AD1127 'Ugandans support taxation but prefer lower taxes with fewer services' (2026) and PP89 'Misuse, corruption, unfairness erode support for broadening Uganda's tax base' (2023), https://www.afrobarometer.org
Reading this
The catalogue's causal chain runs from perceived corruption through institutional trust to tax morale to compliance. The real numbers above sit at the first two links: control of corruption and government effectiveness are the World Bank's own institutional estimates, and the Afrobarometer figures are Ugandans' own reported trust and fairness perceptions. Whether that chain actually predicts voluntary compliance, the SEM's central claim, needs the compliance panel this page doesn't have; the correlation structure in the real data above is suggestive context for that claim, not a test of it.
Limitations
- The Worldwide Governance Indicators are expert/survey composite estimates, not administrative counts; the World Bank itself publishes confidence intervals around each point, omitted here for readability.
- Afrobarometer figures are Uganda-wide survey percentages from specific published rounds; they are not broken down by sector, district or taxpayer type the way the catalogue entry's compliance panel would be.
- No UGATsDB voluntary-compliance panel is available here, so the SEM's final links (tax morale to compliance to revenue buoyancy) are not reproduced or tested on this page.
Sources, called live: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (indicator codes prefixed GOV_WGI_). Afrobarometer dispatches cited in the panel above.