Case file CET-2019-PROTECT
Common External Tariff raised on products made in Uganda, such as tiles and steel
Highest rung reached: Reported yieldLaw: pending verificationRate increase · Investment and industry
1 point pending verification
- The EAC Gazette notice granting Uganda the rates.
Law
- Principal Act
- East African Community Common External Tariff, applied under the EAC Customs Management Act
- Amending Act
- Pending verification
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- pending verification
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- not recorded
- Amending Act in force from
- assent, gazettement and commencement dates pending
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Customs and trade. Importers of tiles and steel, and Ugandan producers.
- Status
- Legal: pending verification. Implementation: implemented.
Statutory wording pending verification
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. Uganda raised import tariffs on goods also made locally, such as tiles and steel, to protect domestic producers.
Reason
Increase the Common External Tariff on products that are produced in Uganda to protect the domestic industry
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began. [URA-ARR-1920, printed page 55, PDF page 62]
Policy objective as classified by the register: Investment and industry. Intended revenue direction: raise.
Revenue
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- URA: UGX 30 bn expected in FY2019/20 (Common External Tariff raised on products made in Uganda, such as tiles and steel).[URA-ARR-1920, printed page 55, PDF page 62, Annex 3, item E1.0]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.- URA reports UGX 107.8 bn for FY2019/20, 359.33 percent of the forecast (computed).[URA-ARR-1920, printed page 55, PDF page 62, Annex 3, item E1.0]
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.Missing. No source read for the register describes effects on prices, compliance cost, investment or equity.
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast, reported yield.
- Uncertain: static or modelled estimate, causal estimate, wider impact; and 1 open point below.
- Would settle it: Request to the EAC Secretariat for the EAC Gazette notices granting Uganda stays of application and duty remissions for FY2019/20 to FY2022/23. Held by East African Community Secretariat; URA Customs.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
No evidence: Nothing read speaks to this link. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- amendment: no evidence. The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- mechanism: hypothesised. A higher rate on an existing base.
- implementation: verified. URA reports performance for the measure, so it was applied.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: verified. URA reports a yield. It is an official attribution, not a causal estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
Revenue effectiveness
Reported yield over URA's forecast for FY2019/20: 359.3 percent.(graded by rule)
Effective
What did not
No criterion graded ineffective or counterproductive on the evidence read.
Open or not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
URA reports tiles and steel products among goods now made in Uganda, with buyers turning to them over imports, which is the measure's stated aim. It does not link the shift to the tariff, and it notes that the local makers enjoy many tax exemptions.[URA-ARR-1920, printed page 24, PDF page 31]
Inconclusive
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Afterlife
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- The EAC Gazette notice granting Uganda the rates.
Sources
URA-ARR-1920
Annual Revenue Report FY 2019/20
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2020. Covers FY2019/20.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenve Report FY 2019-20.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 62 (PDF).
Table 20 (PDF page 50, printed 43) and Annex 3, the measure-level table (PDF pages 60 to 62, printed 53 to 55), read from page images. The file name misspells Revenue.