Case file CET-2021-TEXTILES
Stay of application of the EAC CET: 35% or USD 3 per kg on textiles
Highest rung reached: Reported yieldLaw: pending verificationRate increase · Investment and industry
1 point pending verification
- The EAC Gazette notice.
Law
- Principal Act
- East African Community Common External Tariff, applied under the EAC Customs Management Act
- Amending Act
- Pending verification
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- pending verification
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- not recorded
- Amending Act in force from
- assent, gazettement and commencement dates pending
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Customs and trade. Importers of textiles.
- Status
- Legal: pending verification. Implementation: implemented.
Statutory wording pending verification
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. Uganda applied a higher tariff on textiles than the common EAC rate, then suspended part of it, then restored it.
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- URA: UGX 32 bn expected in FY2021/22 (Stay of the EAC CET: 35% or USD 3 per kg on textiles).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.- URA reports UGX 77.98 bn for FY2021/22, 243.69 percent of the forecast (computed).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.- URA reports that the government halted the specific rate between August and December 2021, applying only the ad valorem rate, and reinstated it in March 2022.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast, reported yield, wider impact.
- Uncertain: static or modelled estimate, causal estimate; and 1 open point below.
- Would settle it: Request to the EAC Secretariat for the EAC Gazette notices granting Uganda stays of application and duty remissions for FY2019/20 to FY2022/23. Held by East African Community Secretariat; URA Customs.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
No evidence: Nothing read speaks to this link. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- amendment: no evidence. The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- mechanism: hypothesised. A higher rate on an existing base.
- implementation: verified. Specific rate halted from August to December 2021, reinstated March 2022.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: verified. URA reports a yield. It is an official attribution, not a causal estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
Revenue effectiveness
Reported yield over URA's forecast for FY2021/22: 243.7 percent.(graded by rule)
Effective
What did not
Legal clarity and certainty
The specific rate was halted from August to December 2021 and reinstated in March 2022, so importers faced three regimes in one year.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
Ineffective
Open or not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Consequences on record
- Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.URA reports that the government halted the specific rate between August and December 2021, applying only the ad valorem rate, and reinstated it in March 2022.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
Afterlife
Dated events
- Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.2021-08-01 (month only): Specific rate on textiles halted; only the ad valorem rate applied until December 2021 (implementation).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
- Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.2022-03-01 (month only): Specific rate on textiles reinstated (implementation).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- The EAC Gazette notice.
Sources
URA-ARR-2122
Annual Revenue Report FY 2021/22
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2022. Covers FY2021/22.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenue Report FY 2021-22.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 53, 54 (PDF).
Table 22 and its commentary (PDF pages 52 to 54, printed 45 to 47) read from page images.