Case file CET-2021-CPO
Import duty of 10% on crude palm oil
Highest rung reached: Reported yieldLaw: pending verificationRate increase · Revenue
1 point pending verification
- The EAC Gazette notice, and price data to test the claim about consumer prices.
Law
- Principal Act
- East African Community Common External Tariff, applied under the EAC Customs Management Act
- Amending Act
- Pending verification
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- pending verification
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- HS sub-heading 1511.10.00
- Principal Act dates
- not recorded
- Amending Act in force from
- assent, gazettement and commencement dates pending
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Customs and trade. Cooking oil and soap manufacturers, and their customers.
- Status
- Legal: pending verification. Implementation: implemented.
Statutory wording pending verification
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. Crude palm oil, a raw material for cooking oil and soap, attracted import duty. Importers shifted to a neighbouring tariff line.
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- URA: UGX 30 bn expected in FY2021/22 (Import duty of 10% on crude palm oil, sub-heading 1511.10.00).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.- URA reports UGX 26.77 bn for FY2021/22, 89.23 percent of the forecast (computed).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.- Taxpayers shifted imports to semi-processed crude palm oil under HSC 1511.90.10, which URA says carries the same rate, so no revenue was lost.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
- URA notes a claim that the duty raised the cost of the raw material and contributed to rising local prices of cooking oil and soap. The claim is reported, not tested.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast, reported yield, wider impact.
- Uncertain: static or modelled estimate, causal estimate; and 1 open point below.
- Would settle it: Request to the EAC Secretariat for the EAC Gazette notices granting Uganda stays of application and duty remissions for FY2019/20 to FY2022/23. Held by East African Community Secretariat; URA Customs.
- Would settle it: Request to UBOS for item-level CPI prices for the affected goods from FY2014/15 to FY2024/25. Held by Uganda Bureau of Statistics (CPI micro-prices, Uganda National Household Survey).
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
No evidence: Nothing read speaks to this link. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- amendment: no evidence. The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- mechanism: hypothesised. A higher rate on an existing base.
- implementation: verified. URA reports performance for the measure, so it was applied.
- response: verified. Imports shifted to HSC 1511.90.10.
- outcome: verified. URA reports a yield. It is an official attribution, not a causal estimate.
- wider: hypothesised. Higher cooking oil and soap prices are claimed, not tested.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
Revenue effectiveness
Reported yield over URA's forecast for FY2021/22: 89.2 percent.(graded by rule)
Partially effective
What did not
No criterion graded ineffective or counterproductive on the evidence read.
Open or not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
Importers moved to a neighbouring tariff line at the same rate, and URA notes an untested claim that the duty raised cooking oil and soap prices.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
Inconclusive
Consequences on record
- Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.Taxpayers shifted imports to semi-processed crude palm oil under HSC 1511.90.10, which URA says carries the same rate, so no revenue was lost.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
- Hypothesis: A plausible claim that no source read for the register tests.URA notes a claim that the duty raised the cost of the raw material and contributed to rising local prices of cooking oil and soap. The claim is reported, not tested.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 47, PDF page 54]
Afterlife
Later changes, cases and practice
- Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.The FY2017/18 outlook already listed 'reinstating the 10 percent import duty on Crude Palm Oil' as a policy measure.[URA-ARR-1617, printed page 42, PDF page 45]
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- The EAC Gazette notice, and price data to test the claim about consumer prices.
Sources
URA-ARR-2122
Annual Revenue Report FY 2021/22
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2022. Covers FY2021/22.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenue Report FY 2021-22.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 54 (PDF).
Table 22 and its commentary (PDF pages 52 to 54, printed 45 to 47) read from page images.
URA-ARR-1617
Annual Revenue Report FY 2016/17
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2017. Covers FY2016/17, with the FY2017/18 outlook.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenue Report FY 2016-17.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 45 (PDF).
The FY2017/18 outlook (PDF page 45, printed page 42) names the policy measures and their expected yield. No measure-level performance table was found in this report.