Case file EDA-2026-FUEL
Excise duty on petrol raised to UGX 1,750 and on diesel to UGX 1,430 per litre
Highest rung reached: Official forecastLaw: read in a statutory textRate increase · Revenue
1 point pending verification
- URA's yield for the measure: URA's reports print yields by tax head only from FY2022/23, so a figure for this measure alone may never be printed.
Law
- Principal Act
- Excise Duty Act (Cap 336), enacted as Act 11 of 2014
- Amending Act
- Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2026 (Act 22 of 2026) (verified)
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- Sch. 2, item 8(a) and (b)
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- assent 2014-10-19; gazette 2014-10-24; commencement 2014-07-01; Uganda Gazette 61
- Amending Act in force from
- 1 July 2026 (assented 20 August 2026; gazetted 28 August 2026)
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Excise duty. Importers and consumers of petrol and diesel, and everyone who pays for transport.
- Status
- Legal: in force. Implementation: pending verification.
| Section A: The law | |
|---|---|
| Amending Act | Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2026 (Act 22 of 2026) |
| In force from | 1 July 2026 |
| Assent | 20 August 2026 |
| Note | Applied from 50 days before it became law. |
| Section B: What the law said before | |
Motor spirit (gasoline) Shs 1550 per litreThe 2024 Act set petrol at UGX 1,550 and diesel at 1,230 a litre from 1 July 2024; the 2025 Act did not touch item 8. The ULII consolidation shows 1,450 and 1,130 because it omits the 2024 Act (the register used those figures until it was corrected on 29 October 2026). The 2026 rise is UGX 200 a litre, as the budget speech says.ACT-EDA-2024, PDF page 7, s. 3(h), substituting Sch. 2 items 8(a) and (b), from 1 July 2024 | |
| Section C: What it does to a worked example | |
| Household: 60 litres of petrol a month | 1,116,000 → 1,260,000 +144,000 UGX of excise a yearMECHANICAL: assumes the full duty is passed into the shelf price and buying is unchanged |
| *** END OF CHANGE SLIP *** | |
The redline
as at 2024-07-01
Deleted: Motor spirit (gasoline): Shs 1550 per litre. Gas oil (automotive, light, amber for high speed engines): Shs 1230 per litre[ACT-EDA-2024, PDF page 7, s. 3(h), substituting Schedule 2, items 8(a) and (b)]
as at 2026-07-01
Inserted: (a) Motor spirit (gasoline) Ushs. 1750 per litre (b) Gas oil (automotive, light, amber for high speed engines) Ushs. 1430 per litreVerified law: Wording or a date read in a statutory text, with the version and page named.[ACT-EDA-2026-22, PDF page 2, s. 2(c)]
Petrol from Shs 1,550 to 1,750 and diesel from Shs 1,230 to 1,430 per litre: both up by Shs 200, as the budget speech (paragraph 144) says. The before-rates are those set by the Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2024 from 1 July 2024; the 2025 Act did not touch item 8. The ULII consolidation 'as at 1 July 2025' shows 1,450 and 1,130 because it does not apply the 2024 Act.
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
Amendment-level revenue contribution not reliably quantified.
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- MoFPED: UGX 450 bn expected in FY2026/27 (Excise duty on diesel and petrol raised by Shs 200 per litre (budget speech)).[MOF-BS-2627, printed page 39, PDF page 43]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.Missing. URA's annual revenue reports read for the register attribute no yield to this measure. URA's measure-level policy tables, where they exist, would settle it (URA Research and Planning).
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.Missing. No source read for the register describes effects on prices, compliance cost, investment or equity.
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast.
- Uncertain: reported yield, static or modelled estimate, causal estimate, wider impact; and 1 open point below.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
Verified: A source read for the register documents this link.
The provision is read in the ULII consolidated text.
- amendment: verified. The provision is read in the ULII consolidated text.
- mechanism: verified. A higher rate on an existing base.
- implementation: no evidence. No source read dates its implementation.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: no evidence. No reported yield or estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
No criterion graded effective on the evidence read.
What did not
No criterion graded ineffective or counterproductive on the evidence read.
Open or not evaluated
Revenue effectiveness
No pair of official forecast and reported yield in shillings.(graded by rule)
Not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Afterlife
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- URA's yield for the measure: URA's reports print yields by tax head only from FY2022/23, so a figure for this measure alone may never be printed.
Sources
ACT-EDA-2024
Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2024
Parliament of Uganda (Parliament Library copy). 2024-07-01. Covers In force from 1 July 2024.
Downloads/Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2024.pdf
Status: verified. No page of this source is confirmed for this record by the audit; it is cited for context.
A scan stamped by the Parliament Library (17 July 2024), 9 pages, read in full except paragraph 3(g): the replacement text for item 7 (cement) is missing from the copy. Commencement 1 July 2024 (s. 1). The ULII consolidation of the Excise Duty Act 'as at 1 July 2025' does not apply this Act.
MOF-BS-2627
Budget Speech, Financial Year 2026/27
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; delivered by Henry Musasizi, Minister of Finance. 2026-06-11. Covers FY2026/27.
Desktop/Tax legislation Amendment Acts/Budget Speech FY2026.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 43 (PDF).
Read: tax measures for FY2026/27 (paragraphs 141 to 148, PDF pages 42 to 45, printed pages 38 to 41).
ACT-EDA-2026-22
Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2026 (Act 22 of 2026)
Parliament of Uganda; Uganda Printing and Publishing Corporation. 2026-08-28. Covers In force from its commencement.
Desktop/Tax legislation Amendment Acts/Excise Duty (Amendment) Act, 2026.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 2 (PDF).
Acts Supplement No. 9 to the Uganda Gazette No. 83, Volume CXIX, dated 28 August 2026. Read in full (4 pages).
ULII-EDA-2025
Excise Duty Act (Chapter 336), version of 1 July 2025
Uganda Legal Information Institute (ULII) and Laws.Africa, from the Law Reform Commission revision. 2025-07-01. Covers Text in force from 1 July 2025; revised and consolidated as at 31 December 2023, later amendments applied by Laws.Africa.
Desktop/Personal/Tax Legislation and URA Returns/Excise Duty Act Cap 336.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 15 (PDF).
Read in full with pdftotext. Lists amending Acts on PDF page 3.
Corrections to this record
- 2026-10-29 Before-rates corrected to Shs 1,550 (petrol) and 1,230 (diesel) per litre from the Excise Duty (Amendment) Act 2024; the 2026 rise is Shs 200, not 300. The open question on the speech and the Act is resolved. The 2024 Act (Parliament Library copy) set these rates from 1 July 2024; the ULII consolidation the register had used does not apply that Act. Found in Fiscal Intelligence Lab Project 4. Previously: [object Object].