Case file LEV-2021-MINERALS
Export levies on processed gold (5%) and unprocessed minerals (10%) (Mining Act 2021)
Highest rung reached: Reported yieldLaw: pending verificationLevy · Revenue
1 point pending verification
- The Mining Act 2021 text and the outcome of the Cabinet negotiation.
Law
- Principal Act
- Export and sector levies in non-tax Acts (Fish Act 2021, Mining Act 2021, Tobacco Control law)
- Amending Act
- Pending verification
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- pending verification
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- not recorded
- Amending Act in force from
- assent, gazettement and commencement dates pending
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Other levies. Gold and mineral exporters.
- Status
- Legal: pending verification. Implementation: delayed.
Statutory wording pending verification
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. Exports of gold and unprocessed minerals pay a levy on value. The gold levy stalled.
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.Missing. The story page draws no collections series for this tax head, so no before and after is shown.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- URA: UGX 30 bn expected in FY2021/22 (Export levy on processed gold (5%) and unprocessed minerals (10%) (Mining Act 2021)).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 45, PDF page 52, Table 22]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.- URA reports UGX 2.32 bn for FY2021/22, 7.73 percent of the forecast (computed).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 45, PDF page 52, Table 22]
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.- URA reports that gold exports yielded little because a decision on the gold levy was delayed after exporters said the rate was too high; negotiations were at Cabinet level.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast, reported yield, wider impact.
- Uncertain: observed change, static or modelled estimate, causal estimate; and 1 open point below.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
No evidence: Nothing read speaks to this link. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- amendment: no evidence. The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- mechanism: hypothesised. A charge on exports or a sector under a non-tax Act.
- implementation: verified. The gold levy stalled pending a Cabinet decision.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: verified. URA reports a yield. It is an official attribution, not a causal estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
No criterion graded effective on the evidence read.
What did not
Revenue effectiveness
Reported yield over URA's forecast for FY2021/22: 7.7 percent.(graded by rule)
Ineffective
Implementation quality
URA reports the gold levy stalled pending a Cabinet decision after exporters objected to the rate.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
Ineffective
Open or not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Consequences on record
- Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.URA reports that gold exports yielded little because a decision on the gold levy was delayed after exporters said the rate was too high; negotiations were at Cabinet level.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
Afterlife
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- The Mining Act 2021 text and the outcome of the Cabinet negotiation.
Sources
URA-ARR-2122
Annual Revenue Report FY 2021/22
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2022. Covers FY2021/22.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenue Report FY 2021-22.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 52, 53 (PDF).
Table 22 and its commentary (PDF pages 52 to 54, printed 45 to 47) read from page images.