Case file LEV-2021-TOBACCO
Levy of USD 0.8 per kilogram of leaf tobacco exported
Highest rung reached: Reported yieldLaw: pending verificationLevy · Investment and industry
1 point pending verification
- The enacted text: URA names a Tobacco Control Bill 2021, not an Act.
Law
- Principal Act
- Export and sector levies in non-tax Acts (Fish Act 2021, Mining Act 2021, Tobacco Control law)
- Amending Act
- Pending verification
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- pending verification
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- not recorded
- Amending Act in force from
- assent, gazettement and commencement dates pending
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- Other levies. Exporters of unprocessed leaf tobacco.
- Status
- Legal: pending verification. Implementation: implemented.
Statutory wording pending verification
In plain English
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. Exports of raw leaf tobacco pay a levy per kilogram, to encourage processing in Uganda.
Reason
partly aimed at promoting value addition and revenue generation for the Country
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register. [URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
Marked as interpretation: the source states this objective, but either does not tie it to this measure in so many words or is not the Ministry that proposed it.
Policy objective as classified by the register: Investment and industry. Intended revenue direction: raise.
Revenue
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.Missing. The story page draws no collections series for this tax head, so no before and after is shown.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- URA: UGX 10 bn expected in FY2021/22 (Levy of USD 0.8 per kg of leaf tobacco exported (Tobacco Control Bill 2021)).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 45, PDF page 52, Table 22]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.- URA reports UGX 0.05 bn for FY2021/22, 0.5 percent of the forecast (computed).[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 45, PDF page 52, Table 22]
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.- URA attributes the near-zero yield to taxpayers adopting value addition and packaging, and expects no further revenue from the measure.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast, reported yield, wider impact.
- Uncertain: observed change, static or modelled estimate, causal estimate; and 1 open point below.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
No evidence: Nothing read speaks to this link. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- amendment: no evidence. The statutory text was not read; the change is known from official reports.
- mechanism: hypothesised. A charge on exports or a sector under a non-tax Act.
- implementation: verified. URA reports performance for the measure, so it was applied.
- response: verified. URA says exporters moved into value addition and packaging.
- outcome: verified. URA reports a yield. It is an official attribution, not a causal estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
No criterion graded effective on the evidence read.
What did not
Revenue effectiveness
Reported yield over URA's forecast for FY2021/22: 0.5 percent.(graded by rule)
Ineffective
Open or not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
URA attributes the near-zero yield to exporters adding value and packaging, which was one of the measure's stated aims. Low revenue may here be a sign of the policy working.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
Inconclusive
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Consequences on record
- Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.URA attributes the near-zero yield to taxpayers adopting value addition and packaging, and expects no further revenue from the measure.[URA-ARR-2122, printed page 46, PDF page 53]
Afterlife
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- The enacted text: URA names a Tobacco Control Bill 2021, not an Act.
Sources
URA-ARR-2122
Annual Revenue Report FY 2021/22
Uganda Revenue Authority. 2022. Covers FY2021/22.
Desktop/Personal/URA DATA BOOKS AND REVENUE REPORTS/Annual Revenue Report FY 2021-22.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 52, 53 (PDF).
Table 22 and its commentary (PDF pages 52 to 54, printed 45 to 47) read from page images.