Case file VAT-2026-THRESHOLD
VAT registration threshold doubled to UGX 300 million a year
Highest rung reached: Official forecastLaw: read in a statutory textAdministration · Compliance
2 points pending verification
- Why the speech says a higher threshold is projected to generate Shs 349 billion: removing small traders from VAT would usually lower revenue.
- URA's yield for the measure: URA's reports print yields by tax head only from FY2022/23, so a figure for this measure alone may never be printed.
Law
- Principal Act
- Value Added Tax Act (Cap 344), enacted as Statute 8 of 1996
- Amending Act
- Value Added Tax (Amendment) Act 2026 (Act number not printed on the copy read) (verified)
- Provision, revised numbering (2023 revision)
- s. 7(2)
- Provision, numbering before the revision
- not stated in any source read
- Principal Act dates
- assent 1996-03-23; gazette 1996-04-04; commencement 1996-07-01; Statute Supplement 5
- Amending Act in force from
- 1 July 2026 (assented 18 May 2026)
- Tax heads and taxpayers affected
- VAT. Small businesses with turnover between UGX 150 million and UGX 300 million, which leave VAT.
- Status
- Legal: in force. Implementation: pending verification.
| Section A: The law | |
|---|---|
| Amending Act | Value Added Tax (Amendment) Act 2026 (Act number not printed on the copy read) |
| In force from | 1 July 2026 |
| Assent | 18 May 2026 |
| Section B: What the law said before | |
by substituting for the words "one hundred fifty", the words "three hundred"The amending Act itself quotes the replaced words: the annual registration threshold was UGX 150 million.ACT-VAT-2026, PDF page 3, s. 7(2), as quoted by the amending Act | |
| Section C: What it does to a worked example | |
| Trader with UGX 120m turnover | 0 → 0 no change must register (1 yes, 0 no)VERIFIED LAW: below both thresholds, so unaffected; traders between UGX 150m and 300m are freed |
| Section D: Paperwork | |
| Traders between UGX 150m and 300m no longer register or file monthly VAT returns | |
| *** END OF CHANGE SLIP *** | |
The wording in force
as at 2026-07-01
Section 7 of the principal Act is amended in subsection (2), by substituting for the words "one hundred fifty", the words "three hundred". Verified law: Wording or a date read in a statutory text, with the version and page named.[ACT-VAT-2026, PDF page 3, s. 3]
Redline pending verification
Reason
Stated objective pending verification
Revenue
Amendment-level revenue contribution not reliably quantified.
- Rung 1
Observed change
Observed: A value or event as an official source records it, copied without calculation.- Collections for the tax heads affected are drawn on the story page, from URA's annual data books. Before and after is never presented as this amendment's effect.
- Rung 2
Official forecast
Official forecast: What MoFPED or URA said a measure would raise, or why it was made, before the year began.- MoFPED: UGX 349 bn expected in FY2026/27 (VAT threshold raised from Shs 150 million to Shs 300 million (as printed: projected to generate)).[MOF-BS-2627, printed page 39, PDF page 43]
- Rung 3
Reported yield
Reported yield: What URA attributes to a measure after the year. An official attribution, not a causal estimate.Missing. URA's annual revenue reports read for the register attribute no yield to this measure. URA's measure-level policy tables, where they exist, would settle it (URA Research and Planning).
- Rung 4
Static or modelled estimate
Modelled estimate: A mechanical or model calculation, with every assumption shown.Missing. No estimate made. A static estimate needs the taxable base before the change (volumes or values by product), which the register does not hold.
- Rung 5
Causal estimate
Causal estimate: An effect identified by a stated research design against a comparison group.Missing. No study with a defensible identification strategy was found for this amendment.
- Rung 6
Wider impact
Interpretation: A reading of the evidence, by a named source or by this register.Missing. No source read for the register describes effects on prices, compliance cost, investment or equity.
What is known, what is uncertain, and what would settle it
- Known: official forecast.
- Uncertain: reported yield, static or modelled estimate, causal estimate, wider impact; and 2 open points below.
Pathway
From the amendment to its wider consequences. Select a link to read what supports it. No money is drawn along the chain, because no flow along it is measured.
Verified: A source read for the register documents this link.
The provision is read in the ULII consolidated text.
- amendment: verified. The provision is read in the ULII consolidated text.
- mechanism: verified. A change in how tax is assessed or enforced, not in what is owed.
- implementation: no evidence. No source read dates its implementation.
- response: no evidence. No source read describes how taxpayers responded.
- outcome: no evidence. No reported yield or estimate.
- wider: no evidence. No source read measures wider effects. No evidence found is not evidence of no effect.
Consequences
Graded against ten criteria. No composite score: a reform that raises money can still be regressive or costly to comply with, and one that loses revenue can serve a legitimate aim. Revenue effectiveness is graded by a stated rule; the rest only where a source speaks to them.
What worked
No criterion graded effective on the evidence read.
What did not
No criterion graded ineffective or counterproductive on the evidence read.
Open or not evaluated
Revenue effectiveness
The measure was not meant to raise revenue, or its direction is unknown.(graded by rule)
Not evaluated
Legal clarity and certainty
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Administrative feasibility
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Compliance cost
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Efficiency
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Investment and competitiveness
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Vertical and horizontal equity
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Distributional effect
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Implementation quality
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Unintended consequences
No source read for the register speaks to this criterion.
Not evaluated
Afterlife
No Tax Appeals Tribunal or court decision on this provision is on record yet. That is not evidence that none exists.
Pending verification
- Why the speech says a higher threshold is projected to generate Shs 349 billion: removing small traders from VAT would usually lower revenue.
- URA's yield for the measure: URA's reports print yields by tax head only from FY2022/23, so a figure for this measure alone may never be printed.
Sources
MOF-BS-2627
Budget Speech, Financial Year 2026/27
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; delivered by Henry Musasizi, Minister of Finance. 2026-06-11. Covers FY2026/27.
Desktop/Tax legislation Amendment Acts/Budget Speech FY2026.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 43 (PDF).
Read: tax measures for FY2026/27 (paragraphs 141 to 148, PDF pages 42 to 45, printed pages 38 to 41).
ACT-VAT-2026
Value Added Tax (Amendment) Act, 2026 (copy without Act number or dates)
Parliament of Uganda; Uganda Printing and Publishing Corporation. 2026. Covers In force from its commencement.
Desktop/Tax legislation Amendment Acts/Value Added Tax (Amendment) Act.pdf
Status: verified. Pages confirmed for this record in the source audit: 3 (PDF).
A typeset copy whose Act number, date of assent and date of commencement lines are blank; section 1 provides that it comes into force on 1 July 2026. Read in full (6 pages). Whether and when it was assented to and gazetted is not shown by this copy.
EY-GTN-2026-1253
Uganda issues tax amendment Acts for 2026 (EY Global Tax News 2026-1253)
EY. 2026-06-11. Covers FY2026/27.
https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2026-1253-uganda-issues-tax-amendment-acts-for-2026
Status: verified. No page of this source is confirmed for this record by the audit; it is cited for context.
Reports that the President assented to the 2026 tax amendment Acts on 18 May 2026 and that the VAT changes, including the registration threshold of UGX 300 million, take effect on 1 July 2026. Used for the assent date the author's copy of the VAT Act leaves blank.
Corrections to this record
- 2026-10-21 Marked in force with the law verified; VAT-A-2026 assent date set to 18 May 2026. EY Global Tax News reports assent on 18 May 2026 with effect from 1 July 2026, and the author confirmed the Act is in force. Previously: [object Object].