TaxIntellilytics Stories

The Tax Month · October 2026

The registers

Every legal citation, data source and derived calculation behind the October issue. Expand a row to see the full record, or download the raw JSON.

Legal register

Raw JSON ↓

10 legal propositions, each traced to a provision

Every legal statement made anywhere in the October issue maps to one row here: the instrument, the exact provision, its status (law in force vs. draft vs. negotiating text), and what it does and doesn't support.

Instrument

Income Tax Act, Chapter 338

Jurisdiction

Uganda

Effective / draft date

Consolidated text current to 2024-12-23

Proposition supported

A non-resident deriving dividends, interest, royalties, rent, a natural resource payment or a management charge from a Ugandan source is taxed on the gross amount at 15%.

Limitations

Rate is set by cross-reference to Schedule 4 Part V, para. 1, not stated in s.82 itself. No specific Uganda tax treaty has been checked for an override.

Notes

General-purpose provision for payments not caught by s.84 or s.86.

Source

Uganda Legal Information Institute / Laws.Africa consolidation

Accessed

2026-09-29

Instrument

Income Tax Act, Chapter 338

Jurisdiction

Uganda

Effective / draft date

Consolidated text current to 2024-12-23

Proposition supported

A payment under a "Ugandan source services contract" to a non-resident is taxed at 15% of the gross amount.

Limitations

Rate is set by cross-reference to Schedule 4 Part V, para. 1. Whether a specific real payment qualifies as a "Ugandan source services contract" depends on its exact facts, not resolved here.

Notes

The provision this issue's opening hypothetical would most likely fall under.

Source

Uganda Legal Information Institute / Laws.Africa consolidation

Accessed

2026-09-29

Instrument

Income Tax Act, Chapter 338

Jurisdiction

Uganda

Effective / draft date

Consolidated text current to 2024-12-23

Proposition supported

A non-resident earning income from a digital service delivered over the internet, an electronic network or an online platform to a Uganda customer is taxed at 5% of the gross amount.

Limitations

Rate is set by cross-reference to Schedule 4 Part V, para. 3. The platform/customer-location test in s.86(2)-(3) has to be met on the facts.

Notes

Named examples in s.86(3): online advertising, data services, online-marketplace intermediation.

Source

Uganda Legal Information Institute / Laws.Africa consolidation

Accessed

2026-09-29

Instrument

Income Tax Act, Chapter 338

Jurisdiction

Uganda

Effective / draft date

Consolidated text current to 2024-12-23

Proposition supported

A Ugandan party to a services agreement with a non-resident not already caught by s.84 must notify the Commissioner General in writing within 30 days, or become personally liable for the non-resident's tax.

Limitations

Whether s.138 notifications are administratively reconciled against s.84 withholding is not publicly documented -- not established from public evidence.

Notes

The identification mechanism for the arrangements s.84 doesn't already catch automatically.

Source

Uganda Legal Information Institute / Laws.Africa consolidation

Accessed

2026-09-29

Instrument

Income Tax Act, Chapter 338

Jurisdiction

Uganda

Effective / draft date

Consolidated text current to 2024-12-23

Proposition supported

Sets the 15% rate applied under ss.81, 82, 83 and 84 (excluding government-securities interest).

Limitations

None identified.

Source

Uganda Legal Information Institute / Laws.Africa consolidation

Accessed

2026-09-29

Instrument

Income Tax Act, Chapter 338

Jurisdiction

Uganda

Effective / draft date

Consolidated text current to 2024-12-23

Proposition supported

Sets the 5% rate applied under s.86 to non-resident digital services.

Limitations

None identified.

Source

Uganda Legal Information Institute / Laws.Africa consolidation

Accessed

2026-09-29

Instrument

Zero Draft of the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation

Jurisdiction

International (UN)

Effective / draft date

Draft dated 2026-07-21

Proposition supported

Would require competent authorities to exchange foreseeably relevant tax information, subject to safeguards.

Limitations

The entire article is enclosed in square brackets in the draft text -- negotiators have not yet agreed it.

Notes

Distinct from Article 10 (Mutual Administrative Assistance), which is not bracketed.

Source

Co-Lead's Zero Draft, read directly from the source PDF

Accessed

2026-09-30

Instrument

Draft Protocol I to the UN Framework Convention -- Taxation of Income from Cross-Border Services

Jurisdiction

International (UN)

Effective / draft date

Draft dated 2026-07-20

Proposition supported

Would let the source state tax fees for services paid to a resident of another State Party, capped at a percentage of the gross amount.

Limitations

The cap itself is an empty bracket -- "[ ] per cent of the gross amount" -- not yet negotiated.

Notes

The provision that would apply to an ordinary cross-border consulting/professional-service payment.

Source

Co-Lead's Draft Protocol I, read directly from the source PDF

Accessed

2026-09-30

Instrument

Draft Protocol I to the UN Framework Convention -- Taxation of Income from Cross-Border Services

Jurisdiction

International (UN)

Effective / draft date

Draft dated 2026-07-20

Proposition supported

Would let the source state tax income from automated digital services, capped at a percentage of the gross amount underlying payments.

Limitations

Same unresolved "[ ] per cent" cap as Article 5. Does not apply where payments qualify as royalties (Art. 3(1)(h)) or insurance premiums (Art. 7).

Notes

Article 6(4)'s list of covered services (online advertising, user data, online intermediation platforms, digital content, cloud computing) closely parallels Uganda's own Income Tax Act s.86(3).

Source

Co-Lead's Draft Protocol I, read directly from the source PDF

Accessed

2026-09-30

Instrument

Draft Protocol II to the UN Framework Convention -- Prevention and Resolution of Tax Disputes

Jurisdiction

International (UN)

Effective / draft date

Draft dated 2026-07-20

Proposition supported

Would establish mechanisms to prevent and resolve tax disputes between States Parties.

Limitations

At an earlier drafting stage than Protocol I -- article numbers themselves are bracketed placeholders (e.g. "Article [II.1]", "Article [III.2]") rather than settled numbering.

Source

Co-Leads' Draft Protocol II, read directly from the source PDF

Accessed

2026-09-30

Source register

Raw JSON ↓

7 documents, each read directly

Every data set and document cited in the issue, in the order of priority this publication follows: Uganda law, then URA, then MoFPED, then UBOS/BOU, then the UN, then OECD/IMF/World Bank/ATAF/ICTD, then academic and secondary sources.

Organisation

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (Uganda)

Document type

Government fiscal report (PDF)

Period covered

August 2026

Data type

Fiscal outturn vs. programme (revenue, taxes, expenditure, deficit)

Page / section

Table 5 -- Summary Table of Fiscal Operations, and accompanying body text

Supports

The August fiscal number, the tax-mix shortfall breakdown

Limitations

Figures are marked preliminary by MoFPED. Trade-tax sub-components are named qualitatively but not individually itemised by value.

Notes

Extracted directly from the published PDF (pdftotext, -layout), not a secondary summary.

Locator

mepd.finance.go.ug/documents/POE/2026/POE-2026-08-AUG.pdf

Accessed

2026-09-29

Organisation

Parliament of Uganda / Uganda Legal Information Institute

Document type

Consolidated legislation

Period covered

n/a

Data type

Statute text

Page / section

ss.82, 84, 86, 138; Schedule 4 Part V

Supports

The Ugandan rulebook section; the transaction simulator's domestic-law side

Limitations

Read directly from the consolidated statute text; no specific tax treaty was checked for an override on any real transaction.

Notes

ulii.org's own HTML pages return 403 to automated fetches; the underlying PDF is directly fetchable.

Locator

ulii.org (media.ulii.org consolidated PDF, via Laws.Africa)

Accessed

2026-09-29

Organisation

United Nations

Document type

Video/meeting record

Period covered

3-13 August 2026

Data type

Process/session timeline

Page / section

n/a

Supports

Confirms the Fifth Session dates and venue

Limitations

Official session transcripts (as opposed to meeting records) were not read for this issue; no delegation-specific interventions are attributed here.

Locator

webtv.un.org

Accessed

2026-09-29

Organisation

UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Financing for Sustainable Development Office

Document type

Institutional process page

Period covered

2025-2027 negotiation timeline

Data type

Process/timeline

Page / section

n/a

Supports

The negotiation timeline (2024/25 architecture, Fifth Session, texts intended for 2027)

Locator

financing.desa.un.org/unfcitc

Accessed

2026-09-29

Organisation

United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee

Document type

Negotiating text (PDF)

Period covered

n/a

Data type

Draft treaty text

Page / section

28 articles across Parts I-III (read in full)

Supports

The UN rulebook section; the protocol register

Limitations

One article (Art. 11) is bracketed/contested in the source text itself; this issue reports that status rather than resolving it.

Notes

Read directly, article by article, via pdftotext.

Locator

A/AC.298/CRP.32 (UN document symbol; PDF supplied directly, not fetched from a public URL)

Accessed

2026-09-30

Organisation

United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee

Document type

Negotiating text (PDF)

Period covered

n/a

Data type

Draft treaty text

Page / section

22 articles (read in full); Articles 5 and 6 quoted directly

Supports

The transaction simulator; the headline "rate left blank" finding

Limitations

This is the co-leads' own draft, not an agreed committee text -- it can change materially before any adoption.

Notes

Read directly, article by article, via pdftotext.

Locator

A/AC.298/CRP.33 (UN document symbol; PDF supplied directly)

Accessed

2026-09-30

Organisation

United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee

Document type

Negotiating text (PDF)

Period covered

n/a

Data type

Draft treaty text

Page / section

Six chapters (read in full)

Supports

The protocol register's note on Protocol II's earlier drafting stage

Limitations

Article numbers are themselves bracketed placeholders in this draft.

Notes

Read directly via pdftotext.

Locator

A/AC.298/CRP.34 (UN document symbol; PDF supplied directly)

Accessed

2026-09-30

Calculation register

Raw JSON ↓

6 derived numbers, each reproducible

Every number in the issue that isn't a direct quote from a source is a calculation from one, shown here with its exact inputs and formula, including where our arithmetic on MoFPED's own rounded table differs from MoFPED's own stated total by a rounding cent.

Input source

MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5

Input variables

{"tax_programme_ugx_bn":2975.86,"tax_outturn_ugx_bn":2663.21}

Rounding

2 decimal places, matching the source table

Calculated

2026-09-29

Analyst

TaxIntellilytics Stories

Notes

MoFPED's own body text states the shortfall as UGX 312.64bn -- a UGX 0.01bn difference from arithmetic on the table's own rounded figures, most likely because the underlying unrounded figures differ slightly from their 2-decimal display. This issue uses MoFPED's stated 312.64bn in prose and shows 312.65bn only where it is the direct arithmetic result of the displayed target/outturn.

Input source

MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5

Input variables

{"tax_outturn_ugx_bn":2663.21,"tax_programme_ugx_bn":2975.86}

Rounding

1 decimal place

Calculated

2026-09-29

Analyst

TaxIntellilytics Stories

Notes

Matches MoFPED's own stated 89.5%.

Input source

MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5

Input variables

{"domestic_revenue_outturn_ugx_bn":2872.47,"domestic_revenue_programme_ugx_bn":3238.15}

Rounding

1 decimal place -> 88.7%

Calculated

2026-09-29

Analyst

TaxIntellilytics Stories

Notes

Matches MoFPED's own stated 88.7%. Shortfall (3238.15 - 2872.47 = 365.68) also matches the source exactly.

Input source

MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5

Input variables

{"total_revenue_outturn_ugx_bn":2895.82,"total_revenue_programme_ugx_bn":3299.1}

Rounding

1 decimal place -> 87.8%

Calculated

2026-09-29

Analyst

TaxIntellilytics Stories

Notes

Matches MoFPED's own stated 87.8%. Arithmetic deviation (3299.10 - 2895.82 = 403.28) differs from MoFPED's own stated -403.29 by UGX 0.01bn -- the same rounding pattern as CALC-001.

Input source

MOFPED-POE-2026-08, Table 5

Input variables

{"net_borrowing_outturn_ugx_bn":-708.85,"net_borrowing_programme_ugx_bn":-257.62}

Rounding

2 decimal places

Calculated

2026-09-29

Analyst

TaxIntellilytics Stories

Notes

The actual deficit ran UGX 451.23bn larger than planned.

Input source

MOFPED-POE-2026-08, body text and Table 5

Input variables

{"indirect_shortfall_ugx_bn":-170.39,"direct_shortfall_ugx_bn":-108.43,"trade_shortfall_ugx_bn":-49.36,"total_tax_shortfall_ugx_bn":-312.64}

Rounding

2 decimal places

Calculated

2026-09-30

Analyst

TaxIntellilytics Stories

Notes

MoFPED's own body text presents these three figures as the shortfall 'reflected across all major tax handles', but they sum to UGX 328.18bn -- UGX 15.54bn more than the UGX 312.64bn total tax shortfall the same report states. Table 5 has no category-level breakdown row for Indirect/Direct/International Trade taxes to check this against. Not established from public evidence whether this is a rounding effect across multiple report tiers, an incomplete category list, or something else -- reported as an open discrepancy, not resolved here.

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